Investigation of Changes in Conveyance of the St. Clair River over Time using a State-Space Model

Contributors

Steven Daly;

Abstract

A state-space hydraulic model, HyDAS, with data assimilation was applied to the St. Clair River to estimate changes in conveyance. The model assimilates water level observations to update estimates of channel conveyance. The model was calibrated to reflect conditions in Apr - Oct 2006 and then applied to the periods 1959-1968, 1979-1985 and 1996-2006. A time series of channel conveyance factors were produced for different sub-reaches and compared to the channel conveyance found during the calibration period. Channel conveyance was seen to be reduced in most winters in response to formation of a stationary ice cover. A record ice jam in April 1984 produced the largest overall conveyance reduction. The downstream most sub-reach from St Clair to Algonac, MI, generally showed the greatest ice impacts and some interesting trends, including a marked increase in conveyance after the 1979-1985 period, suggesting that the 1984 ice jam may have had a significant impact.

Reports:

St. Clair River State Space Modelling

Viewable Data:

St. Clair River Channel Bathymetry

Additional Data and Information

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Supporting Content (Show)

Main Topics

- St. Clair River

Questions We Asked

- Has St. Clair morphology changed since 1962, what initiated it, and when?

- Has St. Clair conveyance changed, and if so, what were the causes?

Key Findings

- Evidence suggests St. Clair erosion is not ongoing, but causes remain unknown

Recommendations

- Remedial measures should not be taken in the St. Clair

Tasks

- St. Clair River Hydraulics Analysis

- Hydrodynamic Modelling